Dealer Consolidation Index: How Used-Vehicle Retail Is Restructuring
U.S. used-vehicle retail is consolidating: larger dealers are taking unit share over time. But the segment actually contracting is small franchise rooftops — independent dealers are holding their share. The driver is a capital-based split between a late-model lane and a fast-turning value lane, not a technology or turn-speed gap. This is a directional read of the used market on a 14-day lag.
Latest reading (2026-05-01): large + national-scale dealers hold 39.8% of monthly used units, down 6.6 pts over the measured window.
The two inventory lanes (latest month)
| Volume tier (used sales/mo) | Share of used units | Median age (yrs) | Median miles | Median days on lot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A≤ 15 / mo | 17.7% | 8.0 | 96,790 | 29 |
| B16–25 / mo | 12.2% | 7.0 | 77,523 | 27 |
| C26–50 / mo | 19.8% | 5.0 | 62,752 | 24 |
| D51–75 / mo | 10.5% | 5.0 | 58,158 | 23 |
| E76+ / mo | 30.8% | 4.0 | 49,261 | 24 |
| MEGANational-scale | 9.0% | 4.0 | 39,780 | 24 |
Aggregate cohort-level data. Tiers are by monthly used units sold. No individual dealers are identified.
Where consolidation is fastest (top U.S. states)
| State | Large + national-scale share of used units | Small-dealer share change |
|---|---|---|
| UT | 58.4% | -1.2 pts |
| NV | 55.8% | +3.0 pts |
| AZ | 52.6% | +5.5 pts |
| VT | 51.4% | -13.3 pts |
| MD | 51.3% | +3.7 pts |
| TX | 49.1% | +5.3 pts |
| HI | 47.8% | -1.6 pts |
| FL | 46.5% | +7.3 pts |
| NC | 46.4% | +8.6 pts |
| GA | 44.8% | +7.6 pts |
U.S. states ranked by large + national-scale dealers' share of used units in the latest month. Aggregate; no individual dealers identified.
Methodology & FAQ
- What is the Dealer Consolidation Index?
- The Dealer Consolidation Index is OAV's aggregate measure of how unit share in U.S. used-vehicle retail is shifting between larger and smaller dealers over time. It is computed from transaction-level used-vehicle sales across dealer-volume tiers (defined by monthly units sold) and franchise-vs-independent dealer type, at monthly granularity. The Index reads market structure — it is anchored in OAV's patented vehicle market standardization technology (U.S. Patent No. 12,236,477).
- Are independent used-car dealers disappearing?
- No — and the data is clear on this. While used-vehicle retail is consolidating, the segment that is actually contracting is small FRANCHISE rooftops, not independents. Across the measured window, independent dealers held or grew their unit share and grew in count at the mid-volume tiers, while small franchise rooftops lost both units and store count — many absorbed by publicly traded dealer groups or closed when an OEM franchise was not renewed. The common 'independents are dying' narrative is not supported by the transaction data.
- What is driving the consolidation?
- A capital-driven 'inventory lane' split, not a turn-speed or technology gap. The market separates into two durable lanes: a late-model lane (newer, lower-mileage vehicles, slower turn, higher price per unit, capital-intensive) concentrated among large and franchise dealers; and a value lane (older, higher-mileage vehicles, fast turn, low price per unit, low capital) where independents operate. Both lanes are economically viable, and the value lane is large and stable in absolute volume. Independents lose share of the total market but are not trapped in a shrinking lane.
- How are dealer tiers defined?
- Dealers are assigned to a volume tier each month based on used units sold that month: roughly small (under ~25/mo), mid (~26-75/mo), large (over ~75/mo), and a separate mega tier for national-scale operators. Tiers are assigned per dealer per month, so a dealer that grows is reflected moving up a tier. The mega tier is reported separately so a small number of national operators do not distort the small-dealer signal.
- Is the Dealer Consolidation Index a forecast?
- No. It is a directional, descriptive read of observed market structure over a trailing window — not a forecast, not a prediction of dealer outcomes, and not a measure of dealer profitability. It carries an intentional 14-day time-lag (the minimum window to confidently observe a used-vehicle sales-velocity signal) and is best used as market context, one input among many.
- What are the Index's known limitations?
- It is a Phase 1, aggregate indicator. Limitations: (1) it reports cohort-level structure (tiers, dealer type, geography), not individual dealer rooftops; (2) the 14-day lag means the most recent weeks are not yet visible; (3) it measures the used market specifically; (4) it does not separate cyclical from structural shifts without additional context; (5) share is measured as a percentage of monthly used units within the source coverage, not the entire universe of U.S. transactions.
- Can I get dealer-level or market-level detail?
- The public Index is aggregate by design. Granular cuts — by individual market, dealer cohort, or for acquisition and competitive-intelligence use — are available to approved viewers through OAV institutional research access at research.oav.io.
Granular cuts — by market, dealer cohort, or for acquisition and competitive-intelligence use — are available through OAV institutional research access at research.oav.io.
Index refreshed 2026-06-12 · Window 2024-01-01 to 2026-05-31 · Used market, 14-day lag.